Republicans are looking at a near certain loss of their House majority in 2024, but they also see a near certain path to take back the Senate.
With slim margins in the House and a tough election-year map, Republicans are facing the likely outcome of the loss of their majority.
Democrats only need to flip five seats to take back the House, and there are nearly a dozen competitive seats with Republican incumbents in California and New York alone.
One of those is the New York district that was flipped by embattled Republican Representative George Santos, which is almost guaranteed to flip back to Democrats.
Additionally, 18 Republicans are running in districts that voted for Biden in the 2020 election. Just 5 Democrats are running in districts that voted for former President Donald Trump.
However, it’s not all grim. The Senate outlook is as bleak for Democrats as the House is Republicans.
Senate Map is Brutal for Democrats
Democrats must defend 23 Senate seats compared to just 11 for Republicans, and the map is rough.
Three of the Democrat seats – in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio – are in states Trump won easily over Biden in 2020.
Arizona, where Senator Kyrsten Sinema ditched the Democrat party label to become independent, is also considered a toss-up.
“I don’t think it’s unfair to say it’s absolutely brutal for the national Democratic Party, as it always is in this cycle,” said former Sinema aide John LaBombard of the 2024 Senate map.
If they hold the White House, Democrats can only afford to lose one seat in the Senate, and privately they are not confident.
“The Senate map is tough. You’ve got a lot of swing people who actually have to toe the line up for reelection. Tester is a really tough defend,” said one Democratic operative of Senator John Tester (D-MT).
Another Democrat aide said much will depend on whether Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) decides to run again and who his Republican opponent will be.
“The numbers seem to show that he would be much more competitive against [Representative Alex] Mooney, who is really far to the right, though [it] would be very challenging to beat [Governor Jim] Justice, who’s quite popular.”
Across the board, Democrat strategists say they will point to abortion to make their case to voters.